Benda WGG, Engels TCE. The predictive validity of peer review: a selective review of the judgmental forecasting qualities of peers, and implications for innovation in science. International Journal of Forecasting 2011;27:166-82
Some form of judgmental assessment is implied in the peer review process, often forecasting the impact of the work. The article investigates what the available data on the predictive validity of peer review can add to the understanding of judgmental forecasting. The review part of the article focuses on: manuscript peer review, its reliability and its predictive validity; group-based peer review and its predictive validity; and the tension between peer review and innovation. Two proposals for enhancing the likelihood of innovative works are described.