van den Besselaar P, Leydesdorff L. Past performance, peer review, and project selection: A case study in the social and behavioral sciences. Sigmetrics*. 2009
Do grant allocation decisions correlate with the past
performances of the applicants in terms of publications and citations? The findings of the Netherlands Research Council for the Economic and Social Sciences is successful in distinguishing grant applicants with above-average performance from those with below-average performance, but within the former group no correlation could be found between past performance and receiving a grant. When comparing the best performing researchers who were denied funding with the group of researchers who
received it, the rejected researchers significantly outperformed the funded
ones. Furthermore, the best rejected proposals score on average as high on the outcomes of the peer review process as the accepted proposals.
*SIGMETRICS is a listserv discussion group that covers bibliometrics, scientometrics and informetrics, but also metrics as related to the design and operation of Digital Libraries and other information systems interpreted broadly. It is a Virtual Special Interest Group of the American Society for Information Science and Technology.
Posted for J. Hartley