Björk B, Hedlund T.Two Scenarios for How Scholarly Publishers Could Change Their Business Model to Open Access. The Journal of electronic Publishing. 2009(12)1
The Internet has made possible the cost-effective dissemination of scientific journals in the form of electronic versions, usually in parallel with the printed versions. At the same time the electronic medium also makes possible totally new open access (OA) distribution models. Although more than 2,000 new OA journals have been founded in the last 15 years, the uptake of open access has been rather slow, with currently around 5% of all peer-reviewed articles published in OA journals. Established journals and publishers have not had strong enough incentives to change their business models, and the commercial risks in doing so have been high. Two different scenarios for how scholarly publishers could change their operating model to open access are presented and discussed:he first is based on an instantaneous change and the second on a gradual change.