Thursday, February 28, 2008

B - Prediction of citation counts for clinical articles at two years using data available within three weeks of publication

Prediction of citation counts for clinical articles at two years using data available within three weeks of publication: retrospective cohort study

Cynthia Lokker, K Ann McKibbon, R James McKinlay, Nancy L Wilczynski, R Brian Haynes

BMJ, doi:10.1136/bmj.39482.526713.BE (published 21 February 2008)

Swift identification of clinical articles that will be important to readers could expedite their dissemination through, for example, clinical guidelines and systematic reviews. This study used ratings based on data collected within 3 weeks of publication to predict citation counts at 2 years after publication
for 1261 clinical journal articles; predictions could be made with 60% surety (P<0.001).>Eleven out of 20 characteristics assessed were statistically significant. The articles rated were clinical studies and review articles with methodology that passed prespecified basic quality criteria. The authors report that the reliability of citation prediction was higher than has been found previously.

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