Lewis DW. The inevitability of open access. College & Research Libraries 2012;73(5):493-506
Using methods described by business theorist Clayton Christensen, this study suggests that gold open access, where all the articles of a journal are available at the time of publication, could account for 50% of the scholarly journal articles between 2017 and 2021, and 90% of articles as soon as 2020 and more conservatively by 2025.
http://crl.acrl.org/content/early/2011/09/21/crl-299.full.pdf+html
Using methods described by business theorist Clayton Christensen, this study suggests that gold open access, where all the articles of a journal are available at the time of publication, could account for 50% of the scholarly journal articles between 2017 and 2021, and 90% of articles as soon as 2020 and more conservatively by 2025.
http://crl.acrl.org/content/early/2011/09/21/crl-299.full.pdf+html
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