B - Can the highly cited psychiatric paper be predicted early?

Hyett M, Parker G. Can the highly cited psychiatric paper be predicted early?

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psichiatry 2009;(43):173-176.

Normally, the importance of a scientific contribution is seen by citation frequency over time and time is the key factor for most of psychiatric researchers. A presentation of paper from preparation to publication is a lengthy process as well as recognition by the scientific community. Can citation perspectives of an article published after two years be predicted 3 weeks after publication (* Lokker C, McKibbon KA, McKinlay RJ, Wilczynshi NL, Haynes RB. “Prediction of citation counts for clinical articles at 2 years using data available within three weeks of publication: retrospective cohort study” BMJ 2008;(336): 655-657) as reported in a recent study by BMJ? The authors sampled 1274 articles from 105 top medicine journals on the basis of 20 potential predictors applying a multiple regression analysis over a longer review period. The conclusions are not consistent with the BMJ report and the authors also indicate that the inclusion of lower impact journals would give a better understanding in predicting future citation success.